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AcquiScore v3 · deterministic verdict · 255 S Grand Ave
Price-to-targetAcquiScore 46/100 · confidence medium
Not at this basis. It works at $116.9M - $290,800 a unit, a 5.60% going-in.
Comp-implied value (~$126.4M) prices a topping market like a rising one. The spread between those two numbers is your negotiation, not your upside.
Regime is TOPPING-WATCH with an EXIT-REVIEW flag - 2027 deliveries run 1.50× demand. This market is telling sellers to sell.
Subject's 5.18% going-in sits just +8 bps over the class-matched median - thin margin for a 45.7/100 WEAK composite signal.
The rent story is capped: 2,248 income-restricted units nearby blunt new-lease pricing, and Prop 13 resets your tax bill to purchase basis on day one.
Deterministic output - the model computes, the narrative only cites it. Prototype values illustrative pending the /acquiscore endpoint.
01
Valuation & cap rate
appraisal UW
Cap-rate benchmark
Going-in cap
5.18% · class-matched, 10 comps
Market median
5.10% · 53 caps, high conf
vs market
+8 bps
Median vintage
1990
P25 4.56%mkt 5.10%subj 5.18%P75 5.41%
Valuation vs market
Comp-implied value
$126,359,856
Assessed total
$104,839,286
Delta
−17% · assessed below comps
$/unit · implied vs assessed
$314,328 vs $260,794
Assessed basis as % of comp-implied
assessed / implied83%
02
Location & rent
ZIP 90012
ZORI rent
$2,487 · Apr 2026
1-yr growth
+0.54%
3-yr CAGR
−0.4%
SAFMR 2BR ceiling
$2,730
Blended fwd growth
3.72% · LOW CONF, n=3
Realized same-store
+6.24%
● subject · rooftop◌ 1 / 2 / 3-mi radius
18 LIHTC properties · 2,248 income-restricted units mapped nearby - rent-restricted supply that caps achievable market rents and blunts new-lease pricing power in this ZIP.
03
Market fundamentals
CBSA 31080
Demand & financing
Population · CBSA
12.84M
Pop CAGR 5-yr
−0.52%
Domestic migration
−1.02%
Job growth 1-yr
+1.15%
UST 10-yr
4.45%
Agency / conduit MF
5.55% / 6.31%
Supply · cycle phase: gluting
2026E deliveries 16,836 units · permit run-rate 158% of 3-yr average
delivery ratio 20261.02×
delivery ratio 20271.50×
Composite market strength · 45.7/100 · WEAK
weakstrong
Basing1/5
Topping4/5
04
Risk
multi-source
Occupancy & distress
Occupancy
97.14% · n=45, stable
Delinquent · 2026-Q2
3.7% · n=27
Median DSCR
1.46
Region vs national distress
0.52% vs 1.59%
Delinquency by quarter
3.3%
25-Q3
3.7%
25-Q4
3.7%
26-Q1
3.7%
26-Q2
Debt bands · conduit CMBS (n=3)
DSCR · P25–P75, median marked
1.27×1.32×1.33×
LTV
67.7%69.1%71.8%
Debt yield
7.7%7.7%8.2%
Conduit CMBS and agency (Fannie/Freddie) are separate loan populations - never blended.
05
Underwriting & costs
confidence medium
CA reassesses on sale (Prop 13). Underwrite Year-1 tax at purchase-price basis - not the seller's trailing bill.
Rent-growth benchmark is low confidence (n=3 same-store) - treat the blended figure as a band, not a plan input.
Opex ratio · median
35.4% · band 32.3–42.1%
Effective tax rate
0.70% · resets on sale
Insurance · B/C
$1,500/unit · $603k annual
Peril
wildfire + earthquake
06
Comparable sales
aggregates · identities on the platform
Matched
5 of 27 pooled
Scope
≤ 2.6 mi · 15-mi cascade
Median $/unit
$314,328
Cap range
4.06%–4.94%
Appraised
Apr–Oct 2025
Match
strong · high conf
1 ★0.55 mi▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ · ▮▮▮ units · ▮▮▮▮ built · ▮.▮▮% · $▮▮▮,▮▮▮/unit
20.64 mi▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ · ▮▮▮ units · ▮▮▮▮ built · ▮.▮▮% · $▮▮▮,▮▮▮/unit
30.70 mi▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ · ▮▮▮ units · ▮▮▮▮ built · ▮.▮▮% · $▮▮▮,▮▮▮/unit
41.88 mi▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ · ▮▮▮ units · ▮▮▮▮ built · ▮.▮▮% · $▮▮▮,▮▮▮/unit
52.55 mi▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮▮ · ▮▮▮ units · ▮▮▮▮ built · ▮.▮▮% · $▮▮▮,▮▮▮/unit
The names, addresses, and per-comp figures live on the platform. Book 20 minutes - we'll walk all five against your basis, plus the 22 we didn't rank.
07
Data quality & provenance
methodology
Coverage grade
A · score 4/4 · 6 sections live
Data version
2026-06-14-r1
Fetched
Jul 7, 2026
Sources
Regrid · SEC EDGAR · Freddie Mac · Census/ACS · Zillow ZORI
Caps are appraisal/UW basis (NOI ÷ appraised value), not realized trade caps · comparable sales are appraisal-derived from CMBS/agency filings · rent measures (ZORI, ACS, SAFMR) are distinct and never averaged · assessed value is a tax basis, typically below market.
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